Not as Crazy as You’d Think

We all know Professor Trelawney by her crazy predictions, mind-numbing lectures, and outrageous frizzy hair. But is she as loony as we think? I decided to make a chart weighing whether her predictions throughout the Harry Potter series are generally correct or incorrect (not counting her two prophecies).

Context Actual Prediction Outcome Notes
Told Neville Longbottom in 1993 to take a blue cup after breaking his first cup because she likes the pink ones best. That Neville would break his teacup and have a chance at breaking his second one. Neville immediately took a cup, broke it, and then broke his second cup later as well. It is debatable whether or not Neville broke the cup out of anxiety from hearing Trelawney’s prediction. However, he did end up breaking the cups so what caused it is out of the question.
Asked Neville about his grandmother and said she may not be as well as he thought. Something bad may happen to his grandmother, causing her to be unwell. Unknown We do not know if Augusta (his grandmother) fell sick at some point, and we do know that she survived the Battle of Hogwarts, so we do not have canonical proof of her ill-being.
N/A Neville would be late for his next Divination class. Unknown Even though this seems plausible given Neville’s character, once again we do not have any canonical proof and cannot count it as accurate.
Told Parvati Patil to beware of a red-headed man. Parvati may have future troubles concerning a man with red hair. Parvati suspected Ron Weasley. One year later, Ron took Parvati’s twin sister Padma to the Yule Ball and ultimately ignored her. Two years after that, Ron dated Parvati’s best friend, Lavender Brown, which caused Lavender to ignore Parvati. This prediction was very broad, but we have enough evidence in the books to safely say that this prediction came true.
N/A There would be a bout of flu in February, and Trelawney herself would lose her voice. Unknown No evidence for or against this was given, so we have to assume that it’s false unless proven true.
N/A The thing Lavender Brown was dreading would happen on October 16. On that day, Lavender received a letter that Binky, her pet rabbit, was killed by a fox. Hermione Granger claimed that it was a coincidence because Lavender could not have been dreading the death of her young rabbit,and that the rabbit could not have died the day that Lavender received the news. However, it was undoubtedly true that Lavender was dreading that something bad would happen on October 16 after hearing Trelawney’s warning, and she did indeed receive bad news, so this prediction is plausible.
Near Easter, Trelawney told Harry Potter’s Divination class that one of their number will leave them forever. A member of their class would either figuratively or literally leave the class or something greater. Hermione dropped Divination around the Easter holidays and never took it again. N/A
While discussing star charts, Trelawney stated that given Harry’s “dark hair, mean stature, [and] tragic losses so young in life…” then Saturn must have been in a position of power when Harry was born, ultimately guessing that Harry was born around mid-winter. Harry Potter was born mid-winter. Harry takes this as one of her crazy bouts because he was born at the end of July, while in reality, unbeknownst to both Harry and Trelawney at the time, Harry was one of Voldemort’s Horcruxes, and she was most likely picking up the Horcrux inside of Harry. This is plausible because Voldemort was born on New Year’s Eve, mid-winter. This shows us that Trelawney may have stronger powers than we thought.
Mentioned only once but is relevant in three cases. When thirteen dine together, the first to rise will be the first to die. This prediction was true in three cases: The first was at Christmas dinner in 1993. Trelawney initially refused to join the table of twelve. Harry and Ron were the first to rise (together), but Albus Dumbledore was the first of the group to die. However, before Trelawney was seated there were really thirteen people there already since Peter Pettigrew was disguised as Scabbers in Ron’s pocket. In this instance, Dumbledore was the first to rise out of these thirteen to greet Trelawney, and he was the first to die as well. In 1995, thirteen members of the Order of the Phoenix dined together and the first to rise was Sirius, who was also the first to die. Finally, in 1997 after the Battle of the Seven Potters, thirteen people gathered in The Burrow to mourn Alastor Moody. Remus Lupin volunteered to search for Moody’s body, and he was the first of the group to die at the Battle of Hogwarts. Even though this is accurate in three situations, it’s still only one prediction so we will count it as one.
When Dolores Umbridge was appointed Hogwarts High Inquisitor, she insisted that Trelawney demonstrate her skills by prophesizing something. Trelawney said that she saw dark things in Umbridge’s future. This can be taken as a fulfilled prediction because later that year, Umbridge was taken prisoner by a herd of centaurs. Though it’s assumed by the reader (and Umbridge) that Trelawney had to make up this prophecy because she could not “see” one herself, in any case this became true, so it is still a true prediction.
Harry overheard Trelawney in 1996-1997 talking to herself with a pack of cards and spoke of a “dark young man, possibly troubled, one who dislikes the questioner.” That there was a “dark young man, possibly troubled, one who dislikes the questioner.” Later that year, Harry sees Draco Malfoy arguing with Severus Snape about Draco’s progress on his mission for Lord Voldemort, meeting the description of Trelawney’s words. N/A
Trelawney complained to Harry that Dumbledore was not listening to her omens of impending doom. She looked at some Tarot cards and saw, “… the lightning-struck tower… Calamity. Disaster. Coming nearer all the time…” Something bad would happen, or more specifically, “… the lightning-struck tower… Calamity. Disaster. Coming nearer all the time…” Dumbledore was killed later that year, and a battle between Death Eaters and Hogwarts students broke out. Dumbledore fell from the Astronomy Tower, making this prediction all the more meaningful. N/A
According to Professor McGonagall, Trelawney had predicted a student’s death every year since 1980. One student at Hogwarts would die every year. Just in Harry’s time at school, the only years students died were in fourth and seventh year. N/A
Predicted Harry Potter’s happy “future” to annoy Dolores Umbridge. Harry would “live to a ripe, old age, become Minister for Magic, and have twelve children.” As of what we know canonically, this prediction has not (yet) come to pass. One could claim that Trelawney was not truly predicting this since that was not her motive, but similar cases where Trelawney seemed to be faking a prophecy have come true, so in all fairness this will be counted.

If we assume that I’ve interpreted this correctly, we can say that Trelawney has about a 60% chance (9/15) that her predictions are correct. Pretty impressive for someone who’s known as a bit of a wack.

What do you think? Do you agree with these interpretations? Would you trust Trelawney to give you Tarot reading now? Let me know in the comments below!

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